Using Social and Search Metrics to Predict the 2012 Golden Globes

UPDATE: 1/16/12

The Descendants took home the top prize in a bit of an upset.  The only indicator we reviewed that aligned with this decision was Facebook Engagement.  WIth the second lowest Fan base number but the second highest engagement rate, perhaps the engagement rate best exhibits the movie's impact and potential for award recognition.  In a couple months, we'll see what Oscar has to say about this.

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Most movie buffs would agree – the Golden Globes are much better than the Oscars.  There are many reasons (more casual, free-flowing booze for the stars, best motion picture awards for drama as well as comedy, etc.) but the best reason may be that while you’re watching, you feel like you’re getting a sneak peek on a casual Hollywood dinner party.  The speeches are wittier and the host (who doesn’t love Ricky’s edge?) can toe that fine line between funny and inappropriate (like a favorite uncle who has had too much to drink at Thanksgiving).

What the rest of the world knows – especially the big production companies – is that The Golden Globes kicks off the high season for movie goers, renters and buyers.  Getting a nomination gives films the endorsement and press needed to help drive revenue.

And so begins the buzz on who will win this year’s top prizes.  As movie fans (well, some of us)  we decided to take a look at three indicators to see if a social / search data-driven prediction might align with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association pick for Best Motion Picture – Drama:  Social listening data, Facebook engagement and Google trends.

Any smart marketer will have a ton of questions about this approach – is the time frame right, shouldn’t you control for release date,  what about the audience demo and likelihood of social activity, how much money did each film spent on promotion, etc.  So let’s be clear - this isn’t meant to be scientific – just a fun way to think about how online activity could indicate or drive results.

Here we go.

Indicator 1:  Social Listening Data

We analyzed millions of social media conversations (Facebook, blogs, discussion groups, Twitter, etc.) from the last 90 days and found the following:

Total and trended share of voice are defined as – of all the discussions including these movies, this is the percent each had of that total.  In addition, these numbers are influenced by the date of the movie release – those releasing earlier in the year saw peaks outside of this date range and those coming later are catching speed now.  Assuming that total buzz might be an indicator of popularity and more exposure (that the HFPA also sees), The Help and Hugo would be front-runners.

Indicator #2:  Facebook Engagement

These days, most movie releases include a Facebook page.  Here is how each nominee looked:

Even more important than the creativity behind the pages (winners on that point are Moneyball and The Ides of March) is the data around engagement:

• Total Fans – how many people have Liked the page.  Clearly, The Help has a huge lead on this one but War Horse has been out for much less time and already shows strong fan acquisition.
• Talking About – looking at the last 7 days, Facebook sums all the actions that might result in a News Feed placement (like, comment, share, etc).  With such a short time period, it’s hard to understand virality / buzz across all films as it would make sense War Horse (released on 12/25) has the most activity.
• Activity Rate – what gets more interesting is dividing the total Talking About count by Total Fans.  This rate shows how engaged a fan base is – removing the variable of how large it is.  For example, despite its very small fan base, The Descendants fans are really active (13.1%) - also true for The Ides of March.

Based on engagement data alone, The Ides of March’s active fan base might indicate that film’s content drives more interest and excitement – maybe the HPFA will agree.

Indicator #3 – Google Trends

Search trends over the past 30 days show that spike for War Horse’s release on 12/25 and that The Help has had the steadiest search volume across the time period:

It could be said that The Help volume might be driven, in part, due to searches for the book (rather than the movie); however, all buzz might mean good buzz for that film.  Based on Google data alone, it appears The Help and Hugo are the leaders.

And The Winner Is…

Looking at all three indicators, our money goes to The Help as it seems to be a lasting crowd favorite.  We shall see what the HFPA has to say on Sunday.  What we might be even more excited to see is what Ricky Gervais has to say.